A Stern Glance

The Las Vegas Sun reported to today that “With emerging signs of economic recovery across the country, a slow but steady stream of Las Vegans is moving away in search of better luck, in stark contrast to the unprecedented influx of residents during the region’s boom years.” Citing a range of resources the Sun said “…Some analysts say they had anticipated even more people [to leave], and suggest the reason is that many residents are struggling to sell their homes or have not been able to find work elsewhere.”

The newspaper all noted that the Census Bureau estimates that from July 2008 to July 2009, the migration out of Clark County exceeded the migration in by more than 1,000. The year before — when the recession wasn’t as severe — the opposite was true, with inbound exceeding outbound by more than 14,000. Click here to read the full story in the Las Vegas Sun.

UNLV’s Center for Business and Economic Research reported today that the August Southern Nevada Index of Leading Economic Indicators was essentially flat growing by only .04 percent over last month. After seasonal adjustment and weighting, none of the ten component series that make up the index had a large positive or negative influence on the index. Essentially, this suggests that all indicators are saying the same thing, aggregate employment growth in the next four to six months will be essentially flat.

From another perspective, looking at the data on an annual percent change, the August value came in at a negative .54 percent. Even though it is negative, not since December of 2007 has that value been less negative. This trend is encouraging but it is still too soon to draw any firm conclusions. First the index must show sustained positive growth before we can expect the same with employment.

We don’t generally discuss other PR firms, however, our sympathies go out to Kirvin Doak, another PR and ad firm here in Las Vegas, which today was among seven new defendants in the latest of the Las Vegas Review-Journal – Righthaven lawsuits, which number now at least 114:

The Las Vegas Sun wrote: “Improving public relations” doesn’t seem to be high on the to-do list at Las Vegas copyright enforcement company Righthaven LLC.

“Righthaven, which has been suing website operators and bloggers for unauthorized online postings of Las Vegas Review-Journal material, on Tuesday sued Kirvin Doak Communications, a longtime source of news and advertising revenue for the Review-Journal.

“Like a few other Righthaven defendants, Kirvin Doak was sued for posting a Review-Journal story on its website that appeared to include quotes and information Kirvin Doak made available to the Review-Journal and other news organizations.” Click here to read the full story in the Las Vegas Sun.

The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price rose 4.4 percent in the second quarter of 2010, after having fallen 2.8 percent in the first quarter. Nationally, home prices are 3.6 percent above their year-earlier levels, though Las Vegas prices declined.

In June, 17 of the 20 MSAs covered by S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices and both monthly composites were up; and the two composites and 15 MSAs showed year-over-year gains. Housing prices have rebounded from crisis lows, but other recent housing indicators point to more ominous signals as tax incentives have ended and foreclosures continue.

Seventeen of the 20 metro areas showed an increase in June compared to May – Las Vegas was down 0.6 percent, Phoenix and Seattle were both flat. Sixteen MSAs were positive for all three months of the quarter. Minneapolis, San Diego, San Francisco and Washington have shown recovery from recent lows of +15.9 percent, +13.4 percent, +21.1 percent and +12.0 percent, respectively. San Diego, in particular, has stood out with 14 consecutive months of increasing home prices. Las Vegas continues to be weak, it was the only market that fell in two months of the second quarter. Home prices in that city are very close to their January 2000 levels.

July 2010 construction spending was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $805.2 billion, 1.0 percent below the revised June estimate of $813.1 billion and 10.7 percent  below the July 2009 estimate of $901.2 billion, the Department of Commerce reported today.

During the first 7 months of this year, construction spending amounted to $460.3 billion, 11.8 percent below the $522.0 billion for the same period in 2009.

Spending on private construction was at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $506.4 billion, 0.8 percent below the revised June estimate of $510.7 billion. Residential construction was at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $240.3 billion in July, 2.6 percent  below the revised June estimate of $246.7 billion.

Nonresidential construction was at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $266.1 billion in July, 0.8 percent above the revised June estimate of $264.0 billion.

In July, the estimated seasonally adjusted annual rate of public construction spending was $298.8 billion, 1.2 percent  below the revised June estimate of $302.4 billion. Educational construction was at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $73.0 billion, 0.1 percent below the revised June estimate of $73.1 billion.

Highway construction was at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $76.8 billion, 2.9 percent below the revised June estimate of $79.1 billion.