General

New orders for manufactured goods in December, up two consecutive months, increased $5.3 billion or 1.1 percent to $466.2 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau reported today. This followed a 2.2 percent November increase. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.6 percent. Shipments, up seven consecutive months, increased $3.4 billion or 0.7 percent to $459.4 billion. This followed a 0.2 percent November increase.

Unfilled orders, up twenty of the last twenty one months, increased $12.7 billion or 1.4 percent to $911.5 billion. This followed a 1.3 percent November increase. The unfilled orders-to-shipments ratio was 6.00, down from 6.13 in November. Inventories, up twenty six of the last twenty seven months, increased $0.4 billion or 0.1 percent to $610.1 billion.

This was at the highest level since the series was first published on a NAICS basis in 1992 and followed a 0.4 percent November increase. The inventories-to-shipments ratio was 1.33, down from 1.34 in November.

Shipments of manufactured durable goods in December, up two of the last three months, increased $4.4 billion or 2.2 percent to $207.5 billion, revised from the previously published 2.1 percent increase. This followed a 0.2 percent November decrease. Primary metals, up seventeen of the last eighteen months, had the largest increase, $2.3 billion or 8.7 percent to $29.2 billion. Shipments of manufactured nondurable goods, down two of the last three months, decreased $1.0 billion or 0.4 percent to $251.9 billion. This followed a 0.6 percent November increase. Petroleum and coal products, also down two of the last three months, drove the decrease, down $1.5 billion or 2.1 percent to $71.0 billion.

Unfilled orders for manufactured durable goods in December, up twenty of the last twenty one months, increased $12.7 billion or 1.4 percent to $911.5 billion, revised from the previously published 1.5 percent increase. This followed a 1.3 percent November increase. Transportation equipment, up eleven of the last twelve months, had the largest increase, $10.7 billion or 2.1 percent to $529.7 billion. This followed a 1.6 percent November increase.

Inventories of manufactured durable goods in December, up twenty four consecutive months, increased $1.1 billion or 0.3 percent to $370.0 billion, unchanged from the previously published increase. This was at the highest level since the series was first published on a NAICS basis and followed a 0.5 percent November increase. Transportation equipment, also up twenty four consecutive months, had the largest increase, $1.8 billion or 1.5 percent to $116.4 billion. Inventories of manufactured nondurable goods, down following three consecutive monthly increases, decreased $0.7 billion or 0.3 percent to $240.1 billion. This followed a 0.3 percent November increase. Chemical products, down two consecutive months, drove the decrease, down $1.0 billion or 1.3 percent to $72.5 billion. By stage of fabrication, December materials and supplies increased 0.8 percent in durable goods and decreased 0.4 percent in nondurable goods. Work in process increased 0.3 percent in durable goods and 0.4 percent in nondurable goods. Finished goods decreased 0.2 percent in durable goods and 0.5 percent in nondurable goods.

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Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 243,000 in January, and the unemployment rate decreased to 8.3 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job growth was widespread in the private sector, with large employment gains in professional and business services, leisure and hospitality, and manufacturing. Government employment changed little over the month.

Household Survey Data

The unemployment rate declined by 0.2 percentage point in January to 8.3 percent; the rate has fallen by 0.8 point since August.

Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rates for adult men (7.7 percent) and blacks (13.6 percent) declined in January. The unemployment rates for adult women (7.7 percent), teenagers (23.2 percent), whites (7.4 percent), and Hispanics (10.5 percent) were little changed. The jobless rate for Asians was 6.7 percent, not seasonally adjusted.

In January, the number of job losers and persons who completed temporary jobs fell to 7.3 million. The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) was little changed at 5.5 million and accounted for 42.9 percent of the unemployed.

After accounting for the annual adjustments to the population controls, the employment-population ratio (58.5 percent) rose in January, while the civilian labor force participation rate held at 63.7 percent.

The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons, at 8.2 million, changed little in January. These individuals were working part time because their hours had been cut back or because they were unable to find a full-time job.

In January, 2.8 million persons were marginally attached to the labor force, essentially unchanged from a year earlier. (The data are not seasonally adjusted.) These individuals were not in the labor force, wanted and were available for work, and had looked for a job sometime in the prior 12 months. They were not counted as unemployed because they had not searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey.

Among the marginally attached, there were 1.1 million discouraged workers in January, little different from a year earlier. (The data are not seasonally adjusted.) Discouraged workers are persons not currently looking for work because they believe no jobs are available for them. The remaining 1.7 million persons marginally attached to the labor force in January had not searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey for reasons such as school attendance or family responsibilities.

Establishment Survey Data

Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 243,000 in January. Private-sector employment grew by 257,000, with the largest employment gains in professional and business services, leisure and hospitality, and manufacturing. Government employment was little changed over the month.

Professional and business services continued to add jobs in January (+70,000). About half of the increase occurred in employment services (+33,000). Job gains also occurred in accounting and bookkeeping (+13,000) and in architectural and engineering services (+7,000).

Over the month, employment in leisure and hospitality increased by 44,000, primarily in food services and drinking places (+33,000). Since a recent low in February 2010, food services has added 487,000 jobs.

In January, health care employment continued to grow (+31,000). Within the industry, hospitals and ambulatory care services each added 13,000 jobs.

Wholesale trade employment increased by 14,000 over the month. Since a recent employment low in May 2010, wholesale trade has added 144,000 jobs.

Employment in retail trade continued to trend up in January. Job gains in department stores (+19,000), health and personal care stores (+7,000), and automobile dealers (+7,000) were partially offset by losses in clothing and clothing accessory stores (-14,000). Since an employment trough in December 2009, retail trade has added 390,000 jobs.

In January, employment in information declined by 13,000, including a loss of 8,000 jobs in the motion picture and sound recording industry.

In the goods-producing sector, manufacturing added 50,000 jobs. Nearly all of the increase occurred in durable goods manufacturing, with job growth in fabricated metal products (+11,000), machinery (+11,000), and motor vehicles and parts (+8,000). Durable goods manufacturing has added 418,000 jobs over the past 2 years.

Employment in construction increased by 21,000 in January, following a gain of 31,000 in the previous month. Over the past 2 months, nonresidential specialty trade contractors added 30,000 jobs.

Mining added 10,000 jobs in January, with most of the gain in support activities for mining (+8,000). Since a recent low in October 2009, mining employment has expanded by 172,000.

Government employment changed little in January. Over the past 12 months, the sector has lost 276,000 jobs, with declines in local government; state government, excluding education; and the U.S. Postal Service.

The average workweek for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls was unchanged in January. The manufacturing workweek increased by 0.3 hour to 40.9 hours, and factory overtime increased by 0.1 hour to 3.4 hours. The average workweek for production and nonsupervisory employees on private nonfarm payrolls edged up by 0.1 hour to 33.8 hours.

In January, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by 4 cents, or 0.2 percent, to $23.29. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased by 1.9 percent. In January, average hourly earnings of private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees edged up by 2 cents, or 0.1 percent, to $19.62.

The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for November was revised from +100,000 to +157,000, and the change for December was revised from +200,000 to +203,000. Monthly revisions result from additional sample reports and the monthly recalculation of seasonal factors. The annual benchmark process also contributed to these revisions.

Stern And Company
Strategic Communications
702-240-9533
steve @ sdsternpr.com

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Nonfarm business sector labor productivity increased at a 0.7 percent annual rate during the fourth quarter of 2011, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. The gain in productivity reflects increases of 3.6 percent in output and 2.9 percent in hours worked. (All quarterly percent changes in this release are seasonally adjusted annual rates.) From the fourth quarter of 2010 to the fourth quarter of 2011, productivity grew 0.5 percent, as output rose 2.3 percent and hours rose 1.8 percent.  Annual average productivity increased 0.7 percent from 2010 to 2011.

Labor productivity, or output per hour, is calculated by dividing an index of real output by an index of hours worked of all persons, including employees, proprietors, and unpaid family workers.

Unit labor costs in nonfarm businesses increased 1.2 percent in the fourth quarter of 2011, as productivity grew at a slower rate (0.7 percent) than hourly compensation (1.9 percent). Unit labor costs rose 1.3 percent over the last four quarters. Annual average unit labor costs increased 1.2 percent from 2010 to 2011.

BLS defines unit labor costs as the ratio of hourly compensation to labor productivity; increases in hourly compensation tend to increase unit labor costs and increases in output per hour tend to reduce them.

Manufacturing sector productivity declined 0.4 percent in the fourth quarter of 2011, as output rose 3.8 percent and hours worked increased 4.2 percent; this is the largest quarterly gain in hours worked since the fourth quarter of 2005 (4.8 percent). Over the last four quarters, manufacturing productivity increased 1.7 percent. Annual average productivity grew 2.8 percent from 2010 to 2011. Unit labor costs in manufacturing increased 1.6 percent in the fourth quarter of 2011 but decreased 1.1 percent from the same quarter a year ago.

In the manufacturing sector, productivity grew 2.8 percent in 2011, reflecting a 4.9 percent increase in output combined with a 2.0 percent increase in hours; this is the largest annual increase in manufacturing sector hours since a 2.3 percent gain in 1994. Unit labor costs in the manufacturing sector fell 1.3 percent in 2011.

Stern And Company
Strategic Communications
702-240-9533
steve @ sdsternpr.com

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Recently, we proposed a story to a reporter. In effecting this sort of proposal, Stern And Company views it as almost a “partnership” with the reporter, and the newspaper. After all, we provided the reporter with a story he or she determined would be worth pursuing and newsworthy, or at least of interest to readers, and, on our side of the equation, it would be a plus for our client.

In this matter, we arranged a photo shoot with the reporter, as well as a brief interview via conference call (not at all unusual), to which the reporter initially agreed. We opted for a conference call in this case because it would take less time and be more cost effective for the client. Beyond that, as there would be other resources in the story, a “face-to-face” wasn’t really necessary. As an aside, when in the news business, I always preferred the phone for “benign” stories. It was just easier and a time saver.

When we called to confirmed the times for both “meetings,” the reporter said he didn’t want to do a “conference call,” but would show up at the photo shoot, which was an exterior shoot. We said that was not the agreement and there wouldn’t be time.

“Well, I have other resources for this,” the reporter said, to which we responded, “That’s fine, I’m sure they’ll be quite adequate. We’re withdrawing our participation from the story.”

It’s our view that in strategic communications, when working with the media, there needs to be almost absolute trust on both sides. Stern And Company has been in business for nearly three decades and we all have “major
league” news experience. When a reporter reverses his position and isn’t willing to work in that “quasi-partnership,” right or wrong, we see it as sign that the story might be going “sideways,” or at bare minimum, not reflect our client in the light we would best like to see.

Now, the reporter certainly has his job to do, but we have ours, which is to protect our client from inaccuracies and innuendo in the media, both of which have increased significantly in the past few years. While this story may be perfectly fine, we’re not willing to take that chance. After all, newspapers are no longer just birdcage liners; articles remain on the Internet for years.

Discretion, to paraphrase Falstaff in Henry the Fourth, is the better part of valor.

Stern And Company
Strategic Communications
702-240-9533
steve @ sdsternpr.com

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Unemployment rates were lower in December than a year earlier in 329 of the 372 metropolitan areas, higher in 36 areas, and unchanged in 7 areas, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Ten areas recorded jobless rates higher than 15.0 percent, while 24 areas registered rates of less than 5.0 percent. Two hundred thirty-nine metropolitan areas reported over-the-year increases in nonfarm payroll employment, 127 reported decreases, and 6 had no change. The national unemployment rate in December was 8.3 percent, not seasonally adjusted, down from 9.1 percent a year earlier.

Of the 49 metropolitan areas with a Census 2000 population of 1 million or more, the highest unemployment rates in December were registered in Las Vegas-Paradise, Nev., 12.7 percent, and Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, Calif., 12.2 percent. Five additional large areas posted rates of 10.0 percent or more. The lowest jobless rates among the large areas were recorded in Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, Minn.-Wis., and Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, D.C.-Va.-Md.-W.Va., 5.5 percent each. Forty-six of the large areas reported over-the-year unemployment rate decreases, while three areas registered increases. Las Vegas-Paradise, Nev., experienced the largest unemployment rate decline from December 2010 (-2.4 percentage points), followed by Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, Fla., and Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, Fla. (-2.2 points each). The large area with the largest over-the-year jobless rate increase was Chicago-Joliet-Naperville, Ill.-Ind.-Wis. (+0.6 percentage point).

Metropolitan Area Unemployment (Not Seasonally Adjusted)

In December, 66 metropolitan areas reported jobless rates of at least 10.0 percent, down from 110 areas a year earlier, while 125 areas posted rates below 7.0 percent, up from 71 areas in December 2010. El Centro, Calif., and Yuma, Ariz., recorded the highest unemployment rates in December 2011, 26.8 and 23.1 percent, respectively. Seven of the other eight areas with jobless rates above 15.0 percent were located in California. Bismarck, N.D., registered the lowest unemployment rate, 3.2 percent. The areas with the next lowest rates were Lincoln, Neb., and Fargo, N.D.-Minn., 3.6 and 3.7 percent, respectively. A total of 225 areas recorded December unemployment rates below the U.S. figure of 8.3 percent, 143 areas reported rates above it, and 4 areas had rates equal to that of the nation. (See table 1.)

The largest over-the-year unemployment rate decreases in December were registered in Steubenville-Weirton, Ohio-W.Va. (-2.8 percentage points), and Redding, Calif. (-2.7 points). Twenty-seven other areas recorded rate declines of 2.0 percentage points or more, and an additional 139 areas had decreases of at least 1.0 point. Two areas in Washington, Kennewick-Pasco-Richland and Yakima, reported the largest over-the-year jobless rate increases (+1.8 and +1.4 percentage points, respectively).

Metropolitan Division Unemployment (Not Seasonally Adjusted)

Eleven of the most populous metropolitan areas are made up of 34 metropolitan divisions, which are essentially separately identifiable employment centers. In December 2011, Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale, Calif., registered the highest jobless rate among the divisions, 11.6 percent. Framingham, Mass., reported the lowest division rate, 4.8 percent, closely followed by Bethesda-Rockville-Frederick, Md., 4.9 percent. (See table 2.)

Thirty of the metropolitan divisions recorded over-the-year jobless rate decreases in December, while three divisions registered increases and one had no change. Miami-Miami Beach-Kendall, Fla., posted the largest rate decline from a year earlier (-2.8 percentage points). Eighteen other divisions reported rate decreases between 1.0 and 1.9 percentage points. Chicago-Joliet-Naperville, Ill., experienced the largest unemployment rate increase from a year earlier (+0.7 percentage point).

In 3 of the 11 metropolitan areas that contain divisions, the ranges between the highest and lowest division jobless rates were 2.0 percentage points or more in December. Boston-Cambridge-Quincy, Mass.-N.H., recorded the largest rate difference among its divisions, 5.6 percentage points (Lawrence-Methuen-Salem, Mass.-N.H., 10.4 percent, compared with Framingham, Mass., 4.8 percent).

Metropolitan Area Nonfarm Employment (Not Seasonally Adjusted)

In December, 239 metropolitan areas reported over-the-year increases in nonfarm payroll employment, 127 reported decreases, and 6 had no change. The largest over-the-year employment increase occurred in Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown, Texas (+75,800), followed by New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island, N.Y.-N.J.-Pa. (+47,900), Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, Texas (+45,700), and Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana, Calif. (+41,900). The largest over-the-year percentage gain in employment was reported in Columbus, Ind. (+6.4 percent), followed by Casper, Wyo. (+5.9 percent), and Blacksburg-Christiansburg-Radford, Va. (+5.2 percent).

The largest over-the-year decreases in employment occurred in Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, Pa.-N.J.-Del.-Md. (-6,300), New Haven, Conn. (-4,100), and Montgomery, Ala. (-3,900). The largest over-the-year percentage decreases in employment were reported in Missoula, Mont. (-6.5 percent), Abilene, Texas (-5.3 percent), and Dalton, Ga. (-4.9 percent).

Over the year, nonfarm employment rose in 32 of the 36 metropolitan areas with annual average employment levels above 750,000 in 2010. The largest over-the-year percentage increases in employment in these large metropolitan areas were posted in Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown, Texas, and San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, Calif. (+3.0 percent each), and Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, Fla. (+2.5 percent). The largest over-the-year percentage decreases in employment occurred in Cleveland-Elyria-Mentor, Ohio, Indianapolis-Carmel, Ind., and Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, Pa.-N.J.-Del.-Md. (-0.2 percent each).

Metropolitan Division Nonfarm Employment (Not Seasonally Adjusted)

Nonfarm payroll employment data were available in December 2011 for 32 metropolitan divisions, which are essentially separately identifiable employment centers within a metropolitan area. Twenty-four of the 32 metropolitan divisions reported over-the-year employment gains and 8 reported losses. The largest over-the-year increases in the metropolitan divisions occurred in New York-White Plains-Wayne, N.Y.-N.J. (+48,200), Seattle-Bellevue-Everett, Wash. (+36,900), and Boston-Cambridge-Quincy, Mass. (+32,100). The largest over-the-year decreases in the metropolitan divisions were in Nassau-Suffolk, N.Y. (-9,900), Bethesda-Rockville-Frederick, Md. (-5,700), and Wilmington, Del.-Md.-N.J. (-4,100).

The largest over-the-year percentage increases in employment among the metropolitan divisions were reported in Framingham, Mass. (+3.0 percent), Seattle-Bellevue-Everett, Wash. (+2.7 percent), and Lowell-Billerica-Chelmsford, Mass.-N.H., and Warren-Troy-Farmington Hills, Mich. (+2.2 percent each). The largest over-the-year percentage decreases in employment occurred in Wilmington, Del.-Md.-N.J. (-1.2 percent), Bethesda-Rockville-Frederick, Md. (-1.0 percent), Nashua, N.H.-Mass. (-0.9 percent), and Nassau-Suffolk, N.Y. (-0.8 percent).

Stern And Company
Strategic Communications
702-240-9533
steve @ sdsternpr.com

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