Americans’ confidence in the economy rose in April to its highest level since September 2008, just as the financial crisis escalated, according to a private research group.
The upbeat reading offers more hope the economic rebound is gathering steam. Meanwhile, a key home price index reported its first annual increase in more than three years, though it’s too early to say the housing market is recovering.
The Conference Board, a private research group based in New York, reported Tuesday that its Consumer Confidence index increased to 57.9, up from a revised 52.3 in March. The April reading is the highest since September 2008′s 61.4. That was when the financial crisis intensified with the collapse of Lehman Brothers, sending confidence into freefall the following month.
The index — which measures how shoppers feel about business conditions, the job market and the next six months — had been recovering fitfully since hitting an all-time low of 25.3 in February 2009.
April’s reading is still far from what’s considered healthy. A reading above 90 indicates the economy is on solid footing; above 100 signals strong growth. Still, the monthly survey of consumers showed that consumers’ current and short-term concerns about jobs and the overall economy are easing.
One component of the overall index, which assesses how consumers feel now about the economy, rose to 28.6 in April from 25.2 in March. The other component, which measures shoppers’ outlook over the next six months, climbed to 77.4 from 70.4.
Economists believe confidence will remain relatively weak for at least another year because companies haven’t begun to dramatically ramp up hiring.
According to the Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller home price index, home prices in February posted a 0.6 percent increase on a non-seasonally adjusted basis from a year ago, but 11 of the 20 cities in the Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller home price index showed declines.
Against this economic background, signs of life in consumer spending are sprouting this spring, and stores are primping for a recovery by increasing inventories and re-evaluating their marketing.
Retailers reported a 9 percent increase in sales at stores open at least a year for March, the biggest gain since March 1999, though much of that was a result of an earlier Easter that pushed more spending into March. Sales at stores open at least a year are considered a key indicator of a retailer’s health. March’s performance marks the fourth consecutive month of sale gains.
The Conference Board survey — based on a random survey of consumers sent to 5,000 households from April 1-20 — showed worries about jobs were easing. Those saying that jobs are “plentiful” increased to 4.8 percent from 4.0 percent, while those saying jobs are “hard to get” decreased to 45.0 from 46.3.
Consumers were also more upbeat about the job outlook. The percentage of consumers anticipating more jobs in the months ahead increased to 18 percent from 14.1 percent,while those anticipating fewer jobs fell.
